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AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW
AVIAN INFLUENZA A(H5)LOW
DENGUELOW
MEASLESLOW-MODERATE
MPOXLOW-MODERATE
RESPIRATORY ILLNESSLOW

Avian Influenza A(H5)

Avian Influenza A(H5) is a growing global threat that could affect parts of the US.

Current Risk Assessment

Current Risk Assessment

Current Level: LOW
Last Updated: January 28, 2026
Download Current Assessment

Outbreak Updates

Critical Updates

  • Over the past five months, H5N1 detections in animals and humans have consistently declined across several surveillance indicators; overall, no new human cases of H5N1 have been reported in the United States since February 2025 through either the national influenza surveillance system or through state and local health department symptom monitoring, wastewater surveillance shows minimal, sporadic detections in isolated settings, and the number of cattle and poultry detections in the past 30 days have remained in the single digits.

  • Based on the available data, CORI has determined to reduce the current risk level to the first scenario, which indicates minimal spread in cattle and other animals, and no transmission to humans.

  • The overall confidence in this scenario is low to moderate. This decision is informed by the widespread adoption of bulk milk testing across 45 states and 370  sites participating in H5 wastewater surveillance, both of which provide a more comprehensive snapshot of H5N1 nationally than was available this time last year. However, gaps in surveillance remain. Access to human testing remains limited, as over-the-counter or point-of-care testing for humans is currently unavailable. Consequently, hospitals and health departments must play an active role in subtyping. This gap in testing access creates a bias, which may mean we are more likely to miss mild H5N1 cases. Furthermore, the most at-risk populations, specifically farm workers, are experiencing more marginalization now than they were this time last year due to changes in immigration enforcement policy, which could contribute to missed human cases. CORI will continue to monitor the situation and adjust the scenario and confidence levels as needed.

Routine Surveillance Updates

  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting 70 confirmed human cases of H5 in the United States Outbreak (Fig. 1). For the duration of the outbreak, there have been three cases that have not had a known source of infection and reported no contact with animals or raw milk, while 24 have had contact with poultry, 43 have had contact with dairy cows, and two have had exposure to a backyard flock (a group of domestic poultry kept on private residential property for private use).

  • CDC reports that as of July 7, at least 18,600 people have been monitored since 2024. Of these, at least 9,600 have been exposed to dairy cows, and 9,000 have been exposed to birds and other animals, including poultry. In total, since 2022, 27,900 people have been monitored.

  • CDC reports that for the duration of the outbreak, 218 tests have been conducted for individuals with exposure to dairy cows, and 670 tests have been conducted for individuals exposed to birds and other animals, resulting in a positivity rate of 18.81% (41/218) and 3.58% (24/670) respectively.

  • Commercial and backyard flocks continue to be impacted by H5N1, with one commercial poultry flock(large groups of poultry for commercial-scale production) and two backyard flocks affected in the last 30 days. Both the commercial and backyard flocks reported in the last 30 days have been from Pennsylvania.

  • The United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA APHIS) has reported one new infected cattle herd in one state (AZ) in the last 30 days, bringing the total for the outbreak to 1,074 cattle herds in 17 states as of July 7. 

Archived Risk Assessments

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The Center for Outbreak Response Innovation is supported through Cooperative Agreement NU38FT000004 between CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics and Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health.

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