Scenario-Based Human Health Risk Assessments

The Importance of Human Health Risk Assessments

The Center for Outbreak Response Innovation (CORI) regularly conducts disease-specific scenario-based risk assessments to evaluate the potential human health risks from various public health threats. These assessments provide a structured approach to understanding complex scenarios, estimating risks, and informing future policy and operational actions, even in the face of incomplete or imperfect data. Each assessment provides a risk score for specific populations, such as unvaccinated individuals, children, healthcare workers, and the general public, while considering factors like transmission pathways, morbidity, mortality, and the current status of the threat. The effectiveness of preventative measures, response efforts, and political influences are also examined, with each assessment updated as new information becomes available to ensure informed decision-making and proactive health outcomes. The current risk assessments include H5N1, measles, and mpox.

Surveillance and risk levels are reviewed weekly. If the risk assessment level is changed, a new risk assessment is published. We consider a variety of criteria when archiving risk assessments; this may include 1) two incubation periods without transmission, 2) endemic transmission with ongoing case reports, 3) or an extended period of time at the lowest risk level provided. Archived risk assessments will remain available on the disease-specific pages.  

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